Oscar Predictions With 2 Months to Go: Could 'Deadpool' Really Get a Best Picture Nomination?
By John Boone
Photo: 20th Century Fox
Err, so technically we are slightly under two months away from the 89th annual Academy Awards, but we wanted to see how things shook out at Sunday's Golden Globes -- plus, let SAG, the PGA and BAFTA weigh in -- before making our next round of predictions.
As a wise woman once said, "One day you're in, and the next day you're out." That has proven truer than ever this awards season, where things appear less certain after each round of nominations. All that said, here is where we stand ahead of the Oscars' official announcement on Jan. 24...
1. Arrival 2. Fences 3. Hacksaw Ridge 4. Hidden Figures 5. Florence Foster Jenkins 6. Jackie 7. La La Land 8. Lion 9. Manchester by the Sea 10. Moonlight
Despite a Globe nomination and recognition by the all-powerful Producers Guild, we simply cannot imagine the Academy throwing a nomination Deadpool's way. Especially since all 10 spots could be occupied by much more Oscar-friendly fare. (It's worth noting that there may not even be 10 nominees, either, if the Academy doesn't see fit!) Our current crop also leaves out the likes of Hell or High Water, Loving, and Silence, which admittedly are less wild alternates, but whose Oscar runs haven't been able to pick up quite enough steam.
1. Amy Adams (Arrival) 2. Emma Stone (La La Land) 3. Isabelle Huppert (Elle) 4. Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) 5. Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Best Actress is still the tightest race, but there are two sure things: Stone and Portman. So, what do the Golden Globes mean for the Oscars? Well, in short...not much. Except Streep is all but guaranteed a nomination now -- if not for Flo Flo Jenks, then for her Cecil B. DeMille speech. And Huppert, by upsetting Portman in the drama field, squeezed a bit of good face-time in before Oscars voting, perhaps enough to outshine Annette Bening (20th Century Women) and Ruth Negga (Loving), who are equally deserving. Which leaves the last spot for Adams, who has been nominated across the board, while some of her competitors have been less consistent.
Frontrunner: Emma Stone (La La Land)
1. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) 2. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) 3. Denzel Washington (Fences) 4. Ryan Gosling (La La Land) 5. Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
While the Best Actress race could be debated countless different ways, Best Actor seems like a pretty open and shut category, straight through from the SAG Awards to the Oscars. The only changes from my previous predictions are that Garfield's nomination will likely come from Hacksaw Ridge now, as Silence has gone nowhere this awards season, while a wildcard like Mortensen -- and a damn good wildcard, at that -- will make it very difficult for Joel Edgerton (Loving) to break in.
Frontrunner: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
1. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea) 2. Naomie Harris (Moonlight) 3. Nicole Kidman (Lion) 4. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) 5. Viola Davis (Fences)
Honestly, the other four nominees are essentially just placeholders, because Davis will win her first Oscar this year. Williams has been her toughest competition since the jump, while Harris and Kidman have reliably tagged along for the ride. The only question was whether Spencer or Janelle Monáe would get the Hidden Figures nomination, and Spencer won out.
Frontrunner: Viola Davis (Fences)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Dev Patel (Lion) 2. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins) 3. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) 4. Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea) 5. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
As far as superlatives go, the Best Supporting Actor field has been the most...perplexing race of the year, all Aaron Taylor-Johnsons considered. His turn in Nocturnal Animals is certainly compelling -- and he won the Globe for it -- but we imagine that streak will be cut short ahead of the Oscars and, in the end, Ali will take the rightful win.
Frontrunner: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
1. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) 2. Damien Chazelle (La La Land) 3. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) 4. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) 5. Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Martin Scorsese was considered an early lock for the nomination...and then Silence failed to move the needle in the slightest. In his place, Gibson has risen as a controversial choice, but one that seems more likely than, say, Nocturnal Animals director Tom Ford. Still, this race ultimately comes down to Chazelle and Jenkins, and while historically it is not uncommon for Best Picture and Best Director to split, if the La La Land hype train keeps on rolling, Chazelle will be hard to beat.