Hawkins, McDonald, Ronan and Streep are practically guaranteed nominations, with the final spot likely going to Chastain or Margot Robbie (I, Tonya). I'm giving Chastain the edge, for now, because the entire movie rests on her shoulders, but Tonya Harding may prove the flashier role in the end. That said, Vicky Krieps' performance in Phantom Thread is breathtaking, and you wish she'd pull an Alicia Vikander and go Supporting, because I'm certain she would crack that race. Annette Bening (Films Stars Don't Die in Liverpool) and Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes), meanwhile, just might not have enough steam to get them across the finish line.
The Underdog: Jennifer Lawrence for mother! It's funny to think of Lawrence as an underdog, especially at the Oscars -- she's won one already, with four total nominations. (One of which was for Joy!) But the Academy might not be able to see past how polarizing the film is to recognize she is very, very good in it.