GRAMMY Predictions 2022: Who Will Win Best New Artist, Song of the Year and More?

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The 64th Annual GRAMMY Awards are Sunday, and that means it's time to honor the best of the past year in music!

This year, nominees for the Big Four awards -- Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Album of the Year and Best New Artist -- include everyone from ABBA to Saweetie, but the night might be Olivia Rodrigo's to lose. The Disney star crossed over in a big way in 2021, with her instantly-iconic single, "drivers license," and followed it up with a handful of chart-topping hits that cemented her as a musical force to be reckoned with.

So, will Rodrigo become just the third artist in GRAMMYs history to sweep the Big 4? It's a tall task to be sure, given that Billie Eilish -- the last artist to accomplish the feat just two years ago -- has nominations looming in every category except Best New Artist, and awards season momentum from her Oscar-winning Bond ballad, "No Time to Die." Plus, there's plenty of competition from the likes of Lil Nas X, Taylor SwiftEd Sheeran, H.E.R. and more.

Below, ET's resident GRAMMYs experts make their predictions for who should win and who will win in the "Big Four" -- stay tuned throughout GRAMMY night to see who takes home the biggest awards!

RECORD OF THE YEAR

The nominees are:

"I Still Have Faith In You," ABBA
"Freedom," Jon Batiste
"I Get A Kick Out Of You," Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga
"Peaches," Justin Bieber Featuring Daniel Caesar & Giveon
"Right On Time", Brandi Carlile
"Kiss Me More," Doja Cat Featuring SZA
"Happier Than Ever," Billie Eilish
"Montero" (Call Me By Your Name), Lil Nas X
"drivers license," Olivia Rodrigo
"Leave The Door Open," Silk Sonic

Who should win: "Leave the Door Open"

Who will win: "Happier Than Ever"

In the category that celebrates the production and recording of a song, this year’s category is stacked with more than a few heavy hitters. “drivers license,” “Montero” and “Kiss Me More” dominated and left a lasting impression on the Hot 100 charts, and Silk Sonic’s smooth debut single proved that sometimes it takes a little groove and the perfect blend of Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak’s vocal and instrumental talents to put together a perfectly timeless record.  

However, it’s looking like Billie Ellish -- and FINNEAS, of course -- will pull a three-peat (Eilish took home the award in 2020 and 2021, for 'Bad Guy" and "Everything I Wanted," respectively) and take home the gramophone once again with “Happier Than Ever.” The haunting tune is everything you asked for in a track, layered with carefully thought-out lyrics and instrumentation, and has passed the live performance test on stages from Saturday Night Live to worldwide arenas. Our guess is that the title is a prediction for how Eilish will be feeling on GRAMMYs night: Happier than ever. -T.L.


SONG OF THE YEAR

The nominees are:

"Bad Habits," Ed Sheeran
"A Beautiful Noise," Alicia Keys Featuring Brandi Carlile
"drivers license," Olivia Rodrigo
"Fight For You," H.E.R.
"Happier Than Ever," Billie Eilish
"Kiss Me More," Doja Cat Featuring SZA
"Leave The Door Open," Silk Sonic
"Montero (Call Me By Your Name)," Lil Nas X
"Peaches," Justin Bieber Featuring Daniel Caesar & Giveon
"Right On Time," Brandi Carlile

Who should win: "Happier Than Ever"

Who will win: "drivers license"

This is the category centered on songwriting, and while it feels a little wider this year thanks to the lack of a looming Taylor Swift nod, the increase in nominees per category certainly makes it difficult to lock in the winner -- especially given the presence of Academy favorites like Sheeran, Brandi Carlile, and last year's winner in the category, H.E.R. Eilish won in 2020 for "Bad Guy," and the evolution in her songwriting over the last two years makes it feel like she deserves it -- "Happier Than Ever" achieves the rare feat of sounding like two stunning songs in one, without feeling bloated or stitched together.

However, this is likely the category where "drivers license" gets its chance to shine. It takes a special talent to craft such a smash on your very first single, and Rodrigo has it in spades here. It's not surprising, given the hits that followed, but it should -- and likely, will -- be another memorable moment for the young star, commemorated with a golden gramophone of its very own. -M.K.


ALBUM OF THE YEAR

The nominees are:

We Are, Jon Batiste 
Love For Sale, Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga 
Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe), Justin Bieber 
Planet Her (Deluxe), Doja Cat 
Happier Than Ever, Billie Eilish 
Back Of My Mind, H.E.R. 
Montero, Lil Nas X 
Sour, Olivia Rodrigo 
Evermore, Taylor Swift 
Donda, Kanye West 

Who should win:Happier Than Ever

Who will win: Happier Than Ever 

Taylor Swift quietly snuck her way into the category, Kanye West made a surprise arrival, and all eyes were on Olivia Rodrigo, Doja Cat, and Lil Nas X as favorites, thanks to their multiple chart-topping singles. Still, there’s more to that when it comes to Album of the Year.  

Our best bet is that, come Sunday, Billie Eilish will once again walk away with Album of the Year. The 20-year-old first took home the award in 2020 for her debut first studio album, When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?, completing her Big 4 sweep and cementing her breakthrough as one of the world's biggest pop stars. In Happier Than Ever, the singer-songwriter still pulled from the elements that fans loved from her debut, but added an extra layer: heartbreak. With singles that cracked the Top 10 (and one that’s up for Record and Song of the Year), it’s safe to say that 2021 was just a break -- Eilish is back to claim what’s hers.  -T.L.


BEST NEW ARTIST

The nominees are:

Arooj Aftab
Jimmie Allen
Baby Keem
FINNEAS
Glass Animals
Japanese Breakfast
The Kid Laroi
Arlo Parks
Olivia Rodrigo
Saweetie

Who should win: Olivia Rodrigo

Who will win: Olivia Rodrigo

It's the closest thing we have to a lock in the GRAMMYs Big 4 this year, and yet....is it? The Recording Academy has proven just how much they love the O'Connell siblings over the last two years, and it wouldn't totally shock anyone to see FINNEAS beat a talented field and take this one home -- especially given that he and Billie graced the Oscars stage just a week earlier.

Barring that not-quite-Esperanza-Spalding-level upset, however, Sunday night will mint Rodrigo as the newest Best New Artist, a mantle she seems totally prepared to assume, even at the young age of 19. The Disney star-turned-chart-topper gave us a debut album packed with memorable hits and declared in her recent documentary, Driving Home 2 U, that she's more than ready to keep making music that speaks to her personal experience and ever-growing legion of fans. Here's to many more GRAMMYs to come!  -M.K.


The 64th Annual GRAMMY Awards will air live on Sunday, April 3 at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on CBS and stream live and on demand on Paramount+. Stay tuned to ETonline.com for complete GRAMMYs coverage.

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