2020 Golden Globes Predictions: Who Will Win
Pony up, because it's time to place bets on the 2020 Golden Globe Awards.
As the Hollywood Foreign Press Association submits their votes for the best in television and film, ET is making our picks for who their ultimate choices will be with predictions in every film and TV category. Our predictions are based on a mix of merit, industry buzz and countless hours spent attempting to step into the shoes of an HFPA voter. (A notoriously impossible task that makes predicting their picks nearly impossible.)
That said, as ET's resident awards prognosticators, we're offering up our best guesses below. We will find out exactly how we fared when the Globes are handed out on Sunday, Jan. 5.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
The Two Popes
Who Will Win: The Irishman
Martin Scorsese's mobster magnum opus has thus far proved unstoppable this awards season, and we don't expect HFPA voters will vote differently. That said, there is a wackadoodle world in which Joker wins this. After all, its biggest win thus far -- the Venice Film Festival's Golden Lion -- did come from a foreign film fest.
ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Who Will Win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Zellweger's awards season fortunes are so rock solid that she's skipping an easy win in Musical or Comedy and will instead take the slightly more competitive win here, her first on the road to an inevitable Oscar win. Part of the chaos of the Globes, though, is that there is always a surprise or two. Is Theron's Bombshell turn flashy enough that she could spoil here?
ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
We expect Driver's more vulnerable, naturalistic performance will maintain the edge with the Academy, even if Phoenix's showier, physically transformative take on Gotham's Clown Prince of Crime wows with the HFPA. (For precedent, Heath Ledger won for his take on the Joker in 2009.)
BEST MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Though the Globes are known for stretching the definition of comedy, this year's nominees mostly fit the bill. (With Rocketman satisfying the "musical" side of the category.) Still, Tarantino's love letter to the Golden Age of Cinema is probably the most prestige-y of the bunch, but with enough laughs that it doesn't seem like category fraud if it wins Best Comedy.
ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cate Blanchett, Where'd You Go, Bernadette
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Who Will Win: Awkwafina, The Farewell
The HFPA loves anointing their new star, and this race offers that threefold: Armas, Awkwafina and Feldstein are all newcomers, of sorts, and it's easy to imagine any of them giving this acceptance speech. We're going with Awkwafina though, whose awards season run could continue to the Oscars.
ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Who Will Win: Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
DiCaprio may be the obvious choice here (and he did win the last two Globes he was up for), but we're leaning toward Murphy. This sort of comeback performance proves pretty irresistible, and the Globes could claim his first acceptance speech back, which would be quite the must-watch moment.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
This category is Lopez's to lose, at least at the Globes. (Fear not, Dern Hive, the race between the two will still be neck-and-neck onward to the Oscars.)
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Hanks will be receiving this year's Cecil B. DeMille Award, so he's guaranteed screen time already. And while we're sure there is a contingent of HFPA voters who will gravitate toward a legend like Pacino, Pitt's performance -- a career-best -- mixed with his star power and the fact that he hasn't taken home a Globe since 1996, will push him to the top of the heap.
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who Will Win: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Even when Scorsese's films don't win the Globe, he still manages to take home the Best Director award. That The Irishman is the Drama frontrunner this year should only cement his status here. Tarantino and Joon-ho feel like his biggest competition, but we have a feeling the Globes will award them elsewhere.
Marriage Story - Noah Baumbach
Parasite - Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won
The Two Popes - Anthony McCarten
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino
The Irishman - Steven Zaillian
Who Will Win: Marriage Story - Noah Baumbach
Tarantino has done well in this category in the past, but if the HPFA is looking to spread the love -- as they are wont to do -- then he'll be onstage for Best Musical or Comedy, while The Irishman and Parasite will be well represented in other fields. Marriage Story still needs a win, then, and Baumbach's wordy, monologue-filled script is an obvious choice.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - ANIMATED
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
The Lion King
Toy Story 4
Who Will Win: Toy Story 4
Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon 3 and Toy Story 4 each have precursors that won this Globe, but we're giving the edge to Pixar and Disney and, beyond that, to Toy Story. (That is, assuming the HFPA got all of its trolling out of its system with The Lion King's nomination.)
BEST MOTION PICTURE - FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Pain and Glory
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Who Will Win: Parasite
Had Parasite been nominated in Best Drama, there would be some real competition. (HFPA bylaws bar foreign language films from competing in the Drama and Musical and Comedy categories.) As such, it's the easy winner here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Little Women - Alexandre Desplat
Joker - Hildur Guðnadóttir
Marriage Story - Randy Newman
1917 - Thomas Newman
Motherless Brooklyn - Daniel Pemberton
Who Will Win: Joker - Hildur Guðnadóttir
This category could go a number of ways: The Newmans are legends of their field, yet neither cousin has ever won at the Globes, so a win for either would be long overdue. Desplat can't be counted out either, especially as an exception to the HFPA's Little Women snub. But we'll back Guðnadóttir to make history as the first solo female winner in this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Beautiful Ghosts," Cats - Music and Lyrics by Andrew Lloyd Webber & Taylor Swift
"I'm Gonna Love Me Again," Rocketman - Music by Elton John, Lyrics by Bernie Taupin
"Into the Unknown," Frozen II - Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez
"Spirit," The Lion King - Music and Lyrics by Timothy McKenzie, Ilya Salmanzadeh & Beyoncé
"Stand Up," Harriet - Music and Lyrics by Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
Who Will Win: "Beautiful Ghosts"
Putting pen to paper on this prediction feels positively mad, but we're tossing all our Globes conspiracy theory eggs in this basket: "Into the Unknown" feels like the clear choice, and the HFPA was perhaps the only voting body that didn't award "Let It Go," so this could be their chance to make up for it. But look at the star power here: Beyoncé, Elton, Taylor. We don't imagine Beyoncé is showing up, so will the Globes give it to Taylor to get her on that stage?
BEST TELEVISION SERIES - DRAMA
Big Little Lies
The Morning Show
Who Will Win: Succession
This category may be the most difficult to forecast. Why? It's really between The Crown, The Morning Show and Succession, and any of one could win for vastly different reasons. Will the HFPA embrace the grandiose dramatization of Queen Elizabeth’s life story? Will they decide to reward Apple TV+ with their first major award for the imperfect but A-list-heavy Morning Show? Will Succession, the buzziest surprise of the year, gain enough momentum to go all the way? There hasn’t been a repeat winner in this category since Homeland in the early 2010s, and it’s no secret the Globes love to spread the wealth. We could end up eating our words, but for now, we’re going with Succession.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Who Will Win: Fleabag
Can anything topple Fleabag from atop the comedy perch of 2019? Sure, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel won this in 2018 -- while leading lady Rachel Brosnahan took home the acting award the past two years -- and The Kominsky Method won in 2019. But those don’t hold a candle to Fleabag, which should be the runaway winner.
TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
The Loudest Voice
Who Will Win: Chernobyl
Could the George Clooney-produced Catch-22 get its first major awards win? (Remember, it was snubbed at the Emmys.) Or with Bombshell also making the awards rounds, will The Loudest Voice -- about the Roger Ailes/Fox News scandal -- be top of mind? Both are contenders, but we're putting all our eggs in one basket and betting on the critically acclaimed Chernobyl.
ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES - DRAMA
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
Who Will Win: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Aniston is up for her first Golden Globe in TV since 2003, when she won the comedy actress award for Friends. (She was most recently nominated for the indie film Cake in 2015.) If Apple TV+'s splashy Morning Show comes out on top anywhere, Aniston is its best bet, even pitted against co-star Witherspoon. Then again, don't be surprised if Colman -- who has been getting raves for her Queen Elizabeth -- steals it.
ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES - DRAMA
Brian Cox, Succession
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Tobias Menzies, The Crown
Billy Porter, Pose
Who Will Win: Brian Cox, Succession
Unlike the Emmys, surprises are the HFPA's modus operandi and a highly competitive category such as this one would be prime real estate for such a shocker. While we would love to see Porter follow his Emmy win with a Globe, Cox, who plays media mogul Logan Roy, might just spoil his big night.
ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida
Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag
Who Will Win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag
Fresh off a massive Emmy haul, Waller-Bridge is the odds-on favorite in this category. And while she's competing against four deserving women who each delivered unheralded, thought-provoking performances, no one has had as big of a year as Waller-Bridge: She is also the creator of nominated drama series Killing Eve and is a co-writer on the new Bond movie. So, yeah, we're 99.9 percent sure the HFPA will honor the Brit for overachieving on every level.
ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Bill Hader, Barry
Ben Platt, The Politician
Paul Rudd, Living With Yourself
Ramy Youssef, Ramy
Who Will Win: Paul Rudd, Living With Yourself
We may be going out on a limb here -- we wouldn’t be surprised if this award went to Hader, Douglas or even Platt (he’s the shiny new thing!) -- but we're leaning into the idea that Paul Rudd playing two Paul Rudds will ultimately prove irresistible to voters. Playing opposite yourself is nuts to begin with, and Rudd conveys the complexities of an everyman and his clone in brilliant fashion.
ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable
Joey King, The Act
Helen Mirren, Catherine the Great
Merritt Wever, Unbelievable
Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
Who Will Win: Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
Don't count on the Unbelievable ladies or Joey King sneaking in for a surprise victory. Williams gave a performance of a lifetime as Gwen Verdon and delivered a powerful, poignant call-to-action for pay equality when she won at the Emmys, making her the sure bet to collect her second Globe. (She won in 2012 for My Week With Marilyn.)
ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Christopher Abbott, Catch-22
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Spy
Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice
Jared Harris, Chernobyl
Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon
Who Will Win: Jared Harris, Chernobyl
We can’t make our predictions without also addressing the elephant in the room: the glaring (read: stunning) omission of Emmy winner Jharrel Jerome. Jerome would have been our pick to win this category, but because the HFPA somehow overlooked his performance in When They See Us, Harris is next in line. Still, we're baffled by the lack of recognition for Jerome and When They See Us.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Patricia Arquette, The Act
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Toni Collette, Unbelievable
Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
Emily Watson, Chernobyl
Who Will Win: Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
If an opportunity to give Streep an award arises, the HFPA will trip over themselves to give it to her. Streep has the record for most Globe nominations (32!) and wins (9!), so another statuette -- which we’re predicting because she’s MERYL, all caps necessary -- seems as sure of a bet as any. Anything short of a Streep victory would be a pleasant surprise.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Andrew Scott, Fleabag
Stellan Skarsgård, Chernobyl
Henry Winkler, Barry
Who Will Win: Andrew Scott, Fleabag
There’s no denying that Fleabag's Hot Priest dominated watercooler talk for much of the year and his portrayer, the delightfully brilliant Scott, should be the frontrunner to take home his first career Globe. The HFPA adores anything and everything Prime Video, so Scott and his zeitgeist-defining character should be a shoe-in. Then again, the Globes -- as we've well established -- are known for unpredictability. Winkler and Culkin are good picks to spoil Scott's victory lap.
The 77th Annual Golden Globe Awards, hosted by Ricky Gervais, will air live from The Beverly Hilton on Sunday, Jan. 5 at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT on NBC.
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