How the SAG Awards Have Predicted Past Oscar Winners -- and What That Means for This Year's Races

Did Saturday's awards give a sneak peek at the upcoming Oscar winners?

Awards season is in its final stretch, with just the Oscars left to hand out on March 10. But do we already know who's going to win the night's biggest awards?

The 2024 SAG Awards were held over the weekend, and the ceremony has been an accurate predictor of the major acting awards in the past. Last year, every SAG winner in the four major acting categories went on to win the Oscar, and dark horse Everything Everywhere All at Once also took Best Picture after winning the SAG ensemble award.

The year prior, the SAG Awards foretold CODA's unlikely Best Picture win with its ensemble trophy.

So, what does this mean for this year's Oscars? Well, if the trend holds, Killers of the Flower Moon star Lily Gladstone will emerge as the winner of the hotly contested Best Actress race between her and Emma Stone. Heading into the SAG Awards, Stone seemed to have pulled slightly ahead, winning the Critics Choice and BAFTA Awards for her Poor Things role. (They pair split the Golden Globes, with Gladstone winning in the dramatic category, while Stone took the comedy side.)

Beyond Best Actress, however, there aren't many acting races that seem up for grabs -- and the Oscar winners will likely follow SAG as all the top nominees have won nearly every award this season. Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr. and Oppenheimer seem all but a lock for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Picture, respectively, and The Holdovers star Da'Vine Joy Randolph has swept what was supposed to be a more contested Best Supporting Actress race, putting her firmly in the No. 1 spot.

This year's top Oscars contenders include Oppenheimer -- which landed a leading 13 nominations -- as well as Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, American FictionBarbie and The Holdovers.

The 96th Academy Awards, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, will be held Sunday, March 10, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles and broadcast live on ABC starting at 4 p.m. PT/7p.m. ET.


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